Abstract
Forest fires represent a major environmental hazard in dry deciduous forest ecosystems, where vegetation condition, climatic variability, terrain characteristics and anthropogenic pressure can jointly control spatial susceptibility. This study assesses forest-fire susceptibility in Jhargram and Paschim Medinipur districts of West Bengal, India, using an integrated Remote Sensing (RS), Geographic Information System (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) framework. Eleven conditioning parameters—normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance from settlement, distance from road, land surface temperature (LST), average wind speed, relative humidity, slope, normalized difference water index (NDWI), precipitation, elevation and aspect—were derived from Landsat 8, Sentinel-2, SRTM DEM, ERA5 and CHIRPS datasets. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy-AHP) was employed to represent uncertainty in pairwise expert judgements and derive criterion weights, which were subsequently integrated through a GIS-based weighted overlay to generate the Forest Fire Susceptibility Zone (FFSZ) map. Distance from settlement, NDVI, distance from road and LST received the highest normalized weights of 0.1975, 0.1752, 0.1681 and 0.1279, respectively, indicating the combined importance of anthropogenic accessibility and environmental conditions. The resulting susceptibility map was classified into five classes ranging from very low to very high. High and very-high susceptibility zones were concentrated mainly in the northern and western forested lateritic uplands, whereas comparatively lower susceptibility occurred in the agricultural and more moisture-influenced eastern and southeastern parts. The study demonstrates the utility of integrating RS, GIS and Fuzzy-AHP for spatial characterization of forest-fire susceptibility in the study region.
References
1) Abdo, H.G., Almohamad, H., Al Dughairi, A.A. and Al-Mutiry, M. (2022) ‘GIS-based frequency ratio and analytic hierarchy process for forest fire susceptibility mapping in the western region of Syria’, Sustainability, 14(8), 4668. doi:10.3390/su14084668.
2) Akay, A.E. and Erdoğan, A. (2017) ‘GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis for forest fire risk mapping’, ISPRS Annals of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, IV-4/W4, pp. 25–30. doi:10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-4-W4-25-2017.
3) Bera, D., Raut, S., Mahata, C., Dutta, D., Datta, D. and Kundu, A. (2025) ‘Early prediction of forest fire events integrating multi-sensor datasets and machine learning techniques’, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 39(11), pp. 5381–5400. doi:10.1007/s00477-025-03070-5.
4) Bisui, S. and Shit, P.K. (2023) ‘Assessing the dependence of livelihoods in rural communities on tropical forests: insights from the Midnapore Forest Division in West Bengal, India’, Socio-Ecological Practice Research, 5(4), pp. 423–437. doi:10.1007/s42532-023-00167-5.
5) Bjånes, A., De la Fuente, R. and Mena, P. (2021) ‘A deep learning ensemble model for wildfire susceptibility mapping’, Ecological Informatics, 65, 101397. doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101397.
6) Buckley, J.J. (1985) ‘Fuzzy hierarchical analysis’, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 17(3), pp. 233–247. doi:10.1016/0165-0114(85)90090-9.
7) Chandra, S. (2005) ‘Application of remote sensing and GIS technology in forest fire risk modeling and management of forest fires: a case study in the Garhwal Himalayan region’, in Geo-information for Disaster Management. Berlin: Springer, pp. 1239–1254. doi:10.1007/3-540-27468-5_86.
8) Dampage, U., Bandaranayake, L., Wanasinghe, R., Kottahachchi, K. and Jayasanka, B. (2022) ‘Forest fire detection system using wireless sensor networks and machine learning’, Scientific Reports, 12, 46. doi:10.1038/s41598-021-03882-9.
9) Das, G.K. and Das, R. (2016) ‘Mapping of the forest cover based on multi-criteria analysis: a case study on Jhargram sector in Paschim Medinipur District’, International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR), 5(8), pp. 492–499.
10) Datta, D. and Chatterjee, D. (2012) ‘Assessment of community-based initiatives in sustainable management of Indian dry deciduous forests’, International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology, 19(2), pp. 155–171. doi:10.1080/13504509.2011.606549.
11) Enoguanbhor, E.A., Chukwurah, G.O., Enoguanbhor, E.C., Isimah, M.O., Kosun, A.E.O., Ewurum, N.I. and Albrecht, E. (2024) ‘Underlying anthropogenic driving factors of forest landscape degradation in the Kilimanjaro World Heritage Site, Tanzania, using survey-based data’, Nature Environment and Pollution Technology, 23(2), pp. 1115–1122. doi:10.46488/nept.2024.v23i02.045.
12) Eskandari, S. (2017) ‘A new approach for forest fire risk modeling using fuzzy AHP and GIS in Hyrcanian forests of Iran’, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 10, 190. doi:10.1007/s12517-017-2976-2.
13) Guria, R., Mishra, M., Baraj, B., Goswami, S., Santos, C.A.G., Silva, R.M. and Bhutia, K.D.O. (2024) ‘Examining the drivers of forest cover change and deforestation susceptibility in Northeast India using multicriteria decision-making models’, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 196, 1098. doi:10.1007/s10661-024-13172-2.
14) Ju, W., Xing, Z., Wu, J. and Kang, Q. (2023) ‘Evaluation of forest fire risk based on multicriteria decision analysis techniques for Changzhou, China’, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 98, 104082. doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.104082.
15) Kant Sharma, L., Kanga, S., Singh Nathawat, M., Sinha, S. and Chandra Pandey, P. (2012) ‘Fuzzy AHP for forest fire risk modeling’, Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 21(2), pp. 160–171. doi:10.1108/09653561211219964.
16) Kissinger, G., Herold, M. and de Sy, V. (2012) Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation: a synthesis report for REDD+ policymakers. Vancouver, Canada: Lexeme Consulting.
17) Li, W., Xu, Q., Yi, J. and Liu, J. (2022) ‘Predictive model of spatial scale of forest fire driving factors: a case study of Yunnan Province, China’, Scientific Reports, 12, 19029. doi:10.1038/s41598-022-23697-6.
18) Mandal, M. and Das Chatterjee, N. (2021) ‘Forest landscape and its ecological quality: a stepwise spatiotemporal evaluation through a patch-matrix model in Jhargram District, West Bengal State, India’, Regional Sustainability, 2(2), pp. 164–176. doi:10.1016/j.regsus.2021.06.002.
19) Milanović, S., Marković, N., Pamučar, D., Gigović, L., Kostić, P. and Milanović, S.D. (2021) ‘Forest fire probability mapping in eastern Serbia: logistic regression versus random forest method’, Forests, 12(1), 5. doi:10.3390/f12010005.
20) Mohajane, M., Costache, R., Karimi, F., Bao Pham, Q., Essahlaoui, A., Nguyen, H., Laneve, G. and Oudija, F. (2021) ‘Application of remote sensing and machine learning algorithms for forest fire mapping in a Mediterranean area’, Ecological Indicators, 129, 107869. doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107869.
21) Naskar, S., Rahaman, A. and Biswas, B. (2026) ‘Forest fire susceptibility mapping of West Sikkim District, India using MCDA techniques’, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 28(3), pp. 7443–7468. doi:10.1007/s10668-024-05158-4.
22) Nuthammachot, N. and Stratoulias, D. (2021) ‘Multi-criteria decision analysis for forest fire risk assessment by coupling AHP and GIS: method and case study’, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 23(12), pp. 17443–17458. doi:10.1007/s10668-021-01394-0.
23) Nuthammachot, N., Phairuang, W. and Stratoulias, D. (2019) ‘Estimation of carbon emission in the ex-Mega rice project, Indonesia based on SAR satellite images’, Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 17(2), pp. 2489–2499. doi:10.15666/aeer/1702_24892499.
24) Panda, G.K. and Dandapat, K. (2018) ‘A geographic information system-based approach of flood hazards modelling, Paschim Medinipur district, West Bengal, India’, Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 10(1), article 518.
25) Pragya, Kumar, M., Tiwari, A., Majid, S.I., Bhadwal, S., Sahu, N., Verma, N.K., Tripathi, D.K. and Avtar, R. (2023) ‘Integrated spatial analysis of forest fire susceptibility in the Indian Western Himalayas (IWH) using remote sensing and GIS-based fuzzy AHP approach’, Remote Sensing, 15(19), 4701. doi:10.3390/rs15194701.
26) Roy, P.S., Murthy, M.S.R., Roy, A., Kushwaha, S.P.S., Singh, S., Jha, C.S., Behera, M.D., Joshi, P.K., Jagannathan, C., Karnatak, H.C., Saran, S., Reddy, C.S., Kushwaha, D., Dutt, C.B.S., Porwal, M.C., Sudhakar, S., Srivastava, V.K., Padalia, H., Nandy, S. and Gupta, S. (2013) ‘Forest fragmentation in India’, Current Science, 105(6), pp. 774–780.
27) Saaty, T.L. (1977) ‘A scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures’, Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 15(3), pp. 234–281. doi:10.1016/0022-2496(77)90033-5.
28) Saaty, T.L. (1980) The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Planning, Priority Setting, Resource Allocation. New York: McGraw-Hill.
29) Saaty, T.L. (2008) ‘Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process’, International Journal of Services Sciences, 1(1), pp. 83–98. doi:10.1504/IJSSCI.2008.017590.
30) Sari, F. (2021) ‘Forest fire susceptibility mapping via multi-criteria decision analysis techniques for Mugla, Turkey: a comparative analysis of VIKOR and TOPSIS’, Forest Ecology and Management, 480, 118644. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118644.
31) Sinha, A., Nikhil, S., Ajin, R.S., Danumah, J.H., Saha, S., Costache, R., Rajaneesh, A., Sajinkumar, K.S., Amrutha, K., Johny, A., Marzook, F., Mammen, P.C., Abdelrahman, K., Fnais, M.S. and Abioui, M. (2023) ‘Wildfire risk zone mapping in contrasting climatic conditions: an approach employing AHP and F-AHP models’, Fire, 6(2), 44. doi:10.3390/fire6020044.
32) Uthappa, A.R., Das, B., Raizada, A., Kumar, P., Jha, P. and Vara Prasad, P.V. (2025) ‘Forest fire susceptibility mapping using multi-criteria decision making and machine learning models in the Western Ghats of India’, Journal of Environmental Management, 379, 124777. doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124777.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2026 Prasanna Mahata, Prahallad Barman, Nandita Mahata, Rahul Debnath (Author)